26th March 2025: Here are few of the stories that caught our attention over the week with some of our takeaways.
America’s Tourism Forecast for 2025: A $64 Billion Storm Brewing?: Tourism Economics’ latest report paints a concerning picture on the American tourism landscape for 2025 – a projected 5% decline in international tourism across all markets, potentially costing America a staggering $64 billion in 2025.
Several critical factors are converging to create this challenge:
The International Warning Effect
Both Germany and Britain have issued new travel advisories about the U.S. – not exactly the kind of message circulating in key European markets. These warnings stem from what is being called “horrifying experiences” of visitors and stricter enforcement at US entry points. This negative sentiment is spreading through traditional and digital distribution channels with remarkable speed.
The Canadian Boycott Factor
Following recent political tensions and new tariffs, Canadian tourism is projected to decline by 15% – that’s 2 million fewer Canadian visitors and approximately $2.1 billion in lost revenue across our economy. The commercial implications are significant, with evidence already showing:
Canadian high schools cancelling annual New York City trips
Ottawa-based tour operators reporting zero bookings for New York tours
Canadians actively seeking alternative destinations for their travel dollars
The Broader Economic Impact
The ripple effects extend beyond just visitor numbers and the US is looking at potential losses of 14,000 jobs in the tourism industry, with border cities and towns likely to be hit hardest. New York City will feel the pain, but smaller communities that depend on cross-border commerce for their very survival face even greater challenges.
The stronger US dollar adds another layer of complexity to our revenue management strategy – making American destinations more expensive for international travellers and reducing both visitor numbers and length of stay.
The anticipated 0.8% decline in hotel room demand may not sound dramatic, but combined with the projected 5.1% drop in inbound visits (potentially reaching 12.7% below baseline in expanded trade war scenarios), American hotels could be looking at a significant commercial challenge.
From AI to Blackmail: The Surprising Battles Tripadvisor Fights to Keep Reviews Honest: Tripadvisor’s freshly released 2025 Transparency Report has some genuinely fascinating and disturbing facts.
The Unexpected Shift in Review Dynamics
Did you know restaurant reviews have finally dethroned hotel reviews? For the first time ever, food experiences (40%) are outpacing accommodations (30.9%) in review volume.
The AI Generation has Arrived
Perhaps the most eyebrow-raising stat: Tripadvisor removed over 214,000 AI-generated reviews last year! These weren’t spread thinly either – they affected 101,411 properties across 189 countries. The robot reviewers have definitely arrived, but Tripadvisor’s not having it (at least for now!).
Safety Matters More Than You Think
Here’s something powerful: reviews mentioning safety issues are read at least 3 times more often than regular reviews. When Tripadvisor flags a “Serious Safety Incident” alert (they found 1,300+ such reviews last year), travellers pay serious attention.
The Blackmail Problem is Real
Did you realise some guests try to blackmail businesses with bad reviews? Tripadvisor had to remove 814 reviews associated with threats or blackmail. It’s wild that this dark side of review culture exists, but good to know they’re actively fighting against it.
The People Behind the Platform
Tripadvisor’s Trust & Safety team made more than 24 million edits to business listings in 2024 alone.
Between the AI detection, safety flagging systems, and the shifting trends in what we choose to review, Tripadvisor’s report offers a unique window into how our travel habits and online behaviours continue to evolve.
The Invisible Passport: Digital Credentials and the Future of Travel: Phocuswire reports on The International Air Transport Association (IATA) call to speed up the adoption of digital identity technologies.
The conversation reveal significant advancements in streamlining travel processes while maintaining high security standards. Two real life case studies showcase how digital identity systems could be changing and fast.
Hong Kong to Tokyo: A Document-Free Journey
A landmark proof of concept between Hong Kong and Tokyo has successfully demonstrated the viability of document-free international travel. This implementation, involving AATA, Neoke, Pacific Nita airport, and Hong Kong airport, enabled travellers to complete their journey using only biometrics and verifiable digital credentials stored in secure wallets.
It utilised chip data from official documents and biometric verification to create secure, reusable credentials that eliminate the need for physical document checks at multiple touchpoints.
The efficiency gains proved substantial: the traditional document verification process that typically requires 30 minutes was reduced to just 3 minutes. While not yet deployed at global scale, AATA indicates that the standards tested are ready for wider implementation across the aviation industry.
Beyond Border Crossings: Extended Digital Credential Applications
Kandata has further expanded the potential applications of travel credentials beyond airport security. Their system demonstrates how a single digital identity can create an interconnected travel ecosystem spanning multiple services:
- Hotel booking and check-in without additional document verification
- Storage of traveller preferences enabling personalised service offers
- Physical access control to hotel amenities and restricted areas
- Seamless verification across multiple touchpoints in the travel journey
This implementation leveraged QR codes and NFC technology to enable “tap and go” experiences similar to those now commonplace in contactless payment systems.
These represent significant progress toward solving persistent friction points in travel that we all complain about. Although relatively early still, these proof-of-concept deployments do demonstrate that the technical standards and security protocols required for digital travel identity are maturing rapidly.
New Study Reveals Strong Link Between OTA Participation and Hotel Profitability: A comprehensive new industry study reveals some really interesting evidence of a positive correlation between hotels that work with Online Travel Agency (OTAs) and hotel financial performance across key metrics, though with important variations by property type.
For every dollar increase in travel agent commission (used as a proxy for OTA activity), hotels experienced a 1.123% increase in occupancy. This finding confirms what many industry folks know anecdotally: OTAs excel at filling rooms that might otherwise remain vacant.
However there are a few more interesting findings. The study found that each additional dollar spent on commission was associated with a substantial $20.20 increase in REVPAR (at 2019 prices).
And perhaps most compelling for hotel owners and investors but potentially the most controversial is the impact on bottom-line results. The research revealed that each dollar increase in commission led to a $7.08 increase in EBITDA PAR (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization per available room, at 2019 prices).
Economy properties present an important exception. While these hotels still saw increased occupancy and top-line revenue from OTA participation, they experienced lower profitability. For this segment, commission costs appear to outweigh revenue benefits when it comes to bottom-line performance.
Now if we were to take a contrarian view, we could be asking the following:
- The causality behind the correlation: The study reports that each dollar increase in travel agent commission corresponds to a 1.123% increase in occupancy and a $20.20 increase in REVPAR. However, this correlation doesn’t necessarily indicate causation. Hotels with higher occupancy and revenue may simply spend more on commissions as a result of their success, rather than the commissions driving that success. The study’s methodology may not adequately control for this reverse causality issue.
- Profitability claims require further study: While the research finds that each dollar increase in commission led to a $7.08 increase in EBITDA PAR, the significantly lower R-squared value of 24% (compared to 53% for REVPAR) suggests a much weaker relationship.
Having pointed out the potential gaps, this report is in every sense an excellent study on a topic that is discussed more with emotion than facts.
Decoding Traveller Preferences at Each Stage of the Booking Journey: Amadeus Hospitality’s “Travel Dreams” report investigates evolving traveller expectations and the transformative role of technology across the entire journey. It reveals some fascinating insights about what travellers truly want during each phase of their journey.
Inspiration Phase: Landscapes and Authenticity Lead the Way
During the inspiration phase, travellers are remarkably consistent in what captivates them. A commanding 60% cite “stunning landscapes and natural beauty” as their primary motivation. This transcends all generations, from 51% of Gen Z to a remarkable 72% of older travellers.
The second most powerful driver? “Cultural experiences and historical sites,” mentioned by 48% of respondents. What’s particularly interesting here is the channel shift in how travellers discover these experiences. While family recommendations remain crucial (50%), social media (33%) and travel influencers (29%) have gained significant ground over traditional channels in just five years.
The commercial implications are clear. More evidence that content distribution strategies demand even more high-quality visual content showcasing natural beauty, delivered through increasingly diverse digital channels.
Booking Phase: Value and Location Still Rule
When actual booking decisions are made, travellers prioritise practicality. “Price and value for money” tops the list at 49%, with the figure rising to 55% among leisure travellers. Location follows closely at 40%.
However. some 63% of travellers would pay extra for specific hotel features—views, premium entertainment, or local attractions. This translates to potential revenue increases of 12% on average daily rates, approximately $5,383 per room annually.
What’s more, 52% of guests are willing to share personal data for personalised deals.
On-Trip: Personal Touch vs. Technology Efficiency
On-trip experiences reveal the most striking divergence between business and leisure travellers. For leisure guests, 48% decisively prefer traditional check-in with a personal touch, rising to 69% among Boomers. Meanwhile, 71% of business travellers favour online or self-service options.
The second priority reveals similar contrasts. Business travellers seek “seamless travel logistics” (46%) and “smart room controls” (48%), while leisure travellers prioritise cleanliness (60%) and service quality (54%).
Post-Trip: Value Retention and Personalisation
Post-trip reflections reinforce value’s importance, with 61% citing “value for money” as key to returning to a property. “Cleanliness” follows at 57%.
But here’s where the future opportunity becomes clear. For repeat visits, 50% of leisure guests want hotels to know them better and welcome them individually. Meanwhile, 41% of business travellers want more technology integration, including AI personalization.
The Distribution Challenge
Distribution is no longer merely about having the right inventory in the right channels… it requires delivering tailored experiences across the journey—from visual inspiration through seamless booking to personalised on-property experiences and sophisticated retention strategies.